RMB Exchange Rate Starts Weak In The New Year, Two-Way Fluctuation Or Normal.

Looking forward to the new year, where will the RMB exchange rate go under the background of the strong return of the US dollar? What are the main factors affecting the trend of the RMB? From the perspective of all sides, the pressure of short-term devaluation of RMB will exist, but from the economic fundamentals and the balance of payments, the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in general.

　　 Depreciation risk Is it controllable?

In 2014, the RMB exchange rate appeared for the first time since 2010. depreciation This year, the start of the year has basically extended the pattern of weakening at the end of last year, and the future trend has aroused concern.

Xie Dongming, an economist with overseas Chinese Bank of Singapore, believes that the risk of RMB depreciation will still exist in the short term, but the space will not be too large and will remain in the controllable range. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar should be between us $1 and US $6.1 to 6.3 yuan. There may be a slight rebound in the second half of next year, but it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the past few years.

Observers believe that the future US dollar trend, China's economic growth and the balance of payments situation will affect RMB. exchange rate There are several internal and external factors that change.

Deutsche Bank recently released the world's major currency exchange rate forecast report, expected in 2015, the RMB to the U.S. dollar exchange rate will show a downward trend, the relative depreciation of the renminbi is mainly due to the dollar price will be greatly supported.

Xie Dongming believes that the dollar will further strengthen in the first half of 2015, which will create some pressure on the RMB. From a fundamental point of view, China's trade surplus is still relatively large, and this year's exports will remain stable overall, and the surplus will not decrease significantly, and will continue to support the RMB exchange rate.

　　 How does exchange rate volatility affect geometry?

What's the pros and cons of RMB devaluation for outbound tourism and overseas study? Xie pointed out that the depreciation of the renminbi is now directed against the US dollar. However, in terms of Singapore dollar, the total value of the renminbi still appreciates, and the 2015 trend will still be maintained. So from this perspective, it should not have much impact.

According to the relevant people, although the renminbi has depreciated, it still has an appreciation relative to Real, so it has no bad influence on China's students in Brazil, but reduces the cost of living for foreign students.

Observers pointed out that if the RMB entered a short-term depreciation channel in 2015, overseas Chinese students will face the pressure of RMB depreciation. But at the same time, this will encourage more international tourists to travel to China.

Yan Xiaozhe, executive director of the Iowa Chinese Association, said that the depreciation of the RMB has an impact on studying in the US. Now the overseas students' families are taking some measures to counteract the effect of RMB devaluation, for example, students' parents buy real estate including houses, land and companies, and stocks in the United States, so as to preserve their assets in the country.

　　 Is RMB worth holding?

Is it still a good choice to hold Renminbi? Analysts generally believe that the renminbi is relatively strong compared with other major currencies other than the US dollar, and is still worth holding.

Xie Dongming believes that the return of the renminbi is still relatively high, and that compared with other currencies such as the euro and yen, the value of the currency is relatively stable and is still worth holding.

Stakeholders believe that investors should pay attention to their volatility in the short term. In the long run, the renminbi is definitely worth buying.

Deutsche Bank said in its report that it is still optimistic about the yuan. After the initial speculative liquidity weakened the value of the renminbi, the focus of attention now shifted to supporting economic growth. China is expected to use monetary policy as a means to enhance liquidity, attract capital inflows or at least curb capital outflows.

Deutsche Bank pointed out that the current market sentiment towards the renminbi is generally more optimistic, mainly for two reasons: first, the strong rebound trend of China's trade surplus will continue; two, the market expects the Chinese government to take more measures to stimulate domestic demand. Therefore, the current choice of long-term bullish RMB.